ODMD (Automotive Distributors and Mobility Association) Executive Council Leader Ali Haydar Bozkurt was the guest of the Automotive Summit broadcast on Bloomberg HT.
In his evaluation of 2022 performance, Bozkurt said, “When we talk about 2022, we compare it with 2021 and naturally we talk about the 6 percent increase there as a suitable performance. On the other hand, when we look at the general dynamics of Turkey, in fact, Turkey should potentially not fall below the 1 million band under current conditions. For the last 10 years, we have been going back and forth in the band of 800 thousand pieces on average. For several years, we have not been able to catch this number. When we look at it from this point of view, it is debatable how real it would be to say a very perfect performance.”
On the other hand, Bozkurt drew attention to the fact that the factor determining the market for 1-2 years was availability: “At this point, we were able to sell as many vehicles as we could find, and we reached a total market of 783 thousand. There is a delayed demand on both the corporate and retail customer side. Every year, a few hundred thousand deferred demand is always accumulating,” he said.
When we look at the 2023 market, Bozkurt stated that there is actually a postponed and accumulated demand that requires us to be optimistic: “If all brands can find the number of vehicles they want, we see a demand of 1 million 100 thousand – 1 million 200 thousand that will push historical records. We are in a market environment with no sales concerns. On the other hand, the supply side is very valuable. Mobility is no longer a luxury, it is a necessity. We are still far behind the European average in the number of vehicles per capita. It seems that in 2023 it will pass in a similar scenario. The chip crisis is not fully resolved; 60,000 people died from Covid 19 in China last month; Unfortunately, the sub-industry companies that produce some spare parts have unfortunately become inoperable. That car has no chance of coming off the belt if you can’t provide one small screw. We claim that there will be around 800 thousand people in 2023 and the market will take place in that area”.
Why can’t the SCT be lifted overnight?
Bozkurt said, “As the sector, we think that the SCT burden is heavy. According to our work, the SCT has little chance of disappearing overnight. First, the state gets a huge income from it and cannot give up on it all at once. Secondly, when you do this, you encounter a very important import explosion. The current account deficit is our biggest issue. Economics is also shaken in a very important way. Thirdly, since the inventory in the hands of corporate firms will lose value to a great extent, there is also the situation of companies entering into financial difficulties. We worked on the gradual abolition of SCT in 10 years with a simulation. When this happens, it will be a manageable and healthy transition.”